How $1,300 became $149: the GLP-1 price war, dated

Three years ago the list price of losing weight was four figures a month and the alternative was a gray market. The collapse since is the fastest consumer-price story in modern medicine — here's every move, in order.

The setup (2023–2024): four-figure list prices, three-figure workarounds

With Wegovy list-priced around $1,349/month and insurance coverage patchy, demand routed around the system: declared shortages made mass compounding legal, and compounded semaglutide settled in at roughly $99–$299/month. An entire telehealth industry grew on that spread. Average retail on brand pens still shows the old world — GoodRx lists ~$1,611 for Wegovy pens against today's direct prices.

The manufacturers come direct

• January 2024 — Lilly launches LillyDirect; August 2024, Zepbound single-dose vials go self-pay, the first meaningful brand cash pricing.
• March 5, 2025 — Novo answers: NovoCare Pharmacy launches, selling Wegovy direct at $499/month — undercutting its own list price by nearly two-thirds.
• June 2025 — Novo terminates its Hims & Hers partnership, publicly citing "illegal mass compounding and deceptive marketing." The brand-vs-compounded war goes open.

The government enters (late 2025)

• November 6, 2025 — the White House announces pricing agreements with both manufacturers: self-pay averages near $350, oral starting doses at ~$150, and a Medicare pathway at a $50 copay. Nearly everything that follows implements this deal.
• December 22, 2025 — the Wegovy pill (oral semaglutide) is approved; it launches in January 2026 at $149–$299/month by dose. The four-figure era is functionally over for anyone who can take a pill.

2026: the year the board reset

• February 5 — TrumpRx launches: a referral portal displaying the manufacturers' lowest prices. It sells nothing itself; the prices were already real.
• February 9 → March 9 — Novo sues Hims & Hers over its $49/day compounded oral semaglutide; a month later Hims settles and exits compounded GLP-1s